One of the positive changes the Republican party made in 2012 was to change the way delegates were distributed. Before, there were many states who wanted to move their primary or caucus earlier in the calendar year to gain more influence. Now the first four states serve as a winnowing process, but it doesn’t mean that a state that doesn’t vote until March or April can’t make a difference.
South Carolina is the only state that is winner-take-all before March 15. It looks like Donald Trump is on his way to win South Carolina no matter what he says or does, so it will be a headline grabber when he gets 50 more delegates. Nevada gives away 30 more delegates on February 23, but proportionally. At that point, 133 delegates will have been distributed.
On March 1, there will be 13 more states having their vote, all of them being proportional or winner-take-most. These states are Alabama (50), Alaska (28), Arkansas (40), Colorado (37), Georgia (76), Massachusetts (42), Minnesota (38), Oklahoma (43), Tennessee (58), Texas (155), Vermont (16), Virginia (49) and Wyoming (29), for a total of 661 delegates.
Between March 5, there will be Kansas (40), Kentucky (45), Louisiana (47), Maine (23), Puerto Rico (23), Hawaii (19), Idaho (32), Michigan (59), Mississippi (40), Guam (9), and D.C. (19), for another 356 delegates.
Now there are a total of 2472 delegates, so a total of 1237 is needed to win. Now Cruz won Iowa and received 8 of 30 delegates. With a thinner field, Trump won New Hampshire and received 10 of 23 delegates. The less candidates there are, the larger amount of delegates the winning candidate will receive. I would assume after Nevada, there will only be four candidates, and we could get down to three after March 1. I expect Trump to do well in all of these states, as there is literally nothing he can do to lose support. Even then, by March 15, he’ll still be under 600 delegates.
From March 15 on, there’s 1322 delegates up for grabs where the vast majority of states are winner-take-all.
March 15 features Florida (99), Illinois (69), Missouri (52), North Carolina (72), Mariana Islands (9), and Ohio (66). March 19 is the Virgin Islands (9).
March 22 is American Samoa (9), Arizona (58), Idaho (27), and Utah (40).
April will have Wisconsin (42), New York (95), Connecticut (28), Delaware (16), Maryland (38), Pennsylvania (71), and Rhode Island (19).
May will have Indiana (57), Nebraska (36), West Virginia (37), Oregon (28), and Washington (44).
June will conclude with California (172), Montana (27), New Jersey (51), New Mexico (24), and South Dakota (29).