The Case for Believing National Polls

I’ve noticed whenever I post or tweet about polls on the 2020 presidential election, someone will chime in with something “The polls were wrong in 2016!” They actually weren’t. The national polls were correct. It was some of the state polls that threw everybody off. In RealClearPolitics’ final average, they had Clinton at 46.8% and Trump at 43.6%, a difference of 3.2% with polls that averaged a margin of error of +/- 2.8%. This also meant that 9.6% of the electorate was voting third-party or hadn’t decided in the few…

Will George Floyd’s Death Lead to Actual Reform?

The death of George Floyd set off a firestorm that might actually lead to some meaningful change. We’ve had some changes in the past, even though this week it might not feel like it. One example: the more widespread use of body-cams have demonstrated that “bad apples” get caught while it can acquit the actions of others. However, things need to calm down before those new changes can happen. I didn’t go to the protest in Salt Lake City on Saturday. I wish I had now. I did go to…

“A Very Stable Genius” portrays a very unstable President

Pulitzer-prize winners Philip Rucker and Carol Leonnig have put the last three years of Trump into one book: A Very Stable Genius: Donald J. Trump’s Testing of America. It’s a condensed recap with on- and off-the-record sources guiding us through the behind-the-scenes drama that has unfolded in the White House. The authors portray a president who most of the time acts like a spoiled 12-year-old who thinks it is impossible for anyone to be smarter than him. He is surrounded by staff who are either true believers or believe they…

Six Thoughts on Trump’s Impeachment

As the House votes to make Donald Trump the third president in American history to be impeached, I had some thoughts. 1. The Imperial Presidency was curbed after Nixon resigned, but it’s grown back up. Congress no longer views itself as a co-equal branch of government, at least not when “their guy” is in office. The return to the Imperial Presidency ramped up after 9/11 under GWB, kept going under Obama, and now it’s full-fledged under Trump. Why do so many hate politics? You look at what both parties said…

Who won the #DemDebate?

I watched most of the #DemDebate on Tuesday, and this is how I would rate how they did. 12. BETO O’ROURKE – The guy is just not ready. He couldn’t recover from the dressing-down Pete Buttigieg gave him, and his answers were hollow. And his plans (“Tax mosques!”) are just getting more desperate. 11. TOM STEYER – His strategy was to look directly into the camera for all of his answers, but he looked stiff when doing so. It reminded me of the charisma-free businessman Steve Forbes (okay, not quite…

Trump Asks China to Interfere in 2020 Election

Donald Trump stood in front of press cameras on the White House lawn and asked Ukraine and China to investigate the Bidens. He claimed he’s doing it as his duty to look into foreign corruption, but he’s only curious about digging up dirt on his political rival and his family. When asked about any other examples of examining corruption that involved US citizens, Trump could not provide any. Since White House press briefings have been permanently canceled, there’s no way for White House reporters to get more details. On the…

A few comments on the El Paso Manifesto written by white-supremacist Thanos wannabe

For those who want to read the El Paso manifesto for themselves, Drudge has a link to it.  Personally, I found him to be all over the map. He extols far-left, far-right, and can’t-even-spectrum-label-it views in the same paragraph sometimes, but it boils down to this.  He hates immigration, he sees the “invasion” of Latinos as being encouraged by the Democrats to increase their voting bloc so they can turn the US into a one-party country, but the Republicans are weak and pro-corporate, so a pox on both their houses.…

Donald Trump vs the Squad

Donald Trump saw “The Squad” getting all of the attention and wanted to involve himself somehow. Or maybe he saw too much attention being paid to his former friend Jeffrey Epstein’s child sex abuse case, or to the deplorable conditions in detention centers by the border, and he wanted a distraction. Whatever the motivation, it was a good political strategy to enter the fray with the “Dems in Disarray.” Unfortunately, he did it in a racist way. The Squad are to Nancy Pelosi what the Tea Party was to John…

Kamala Harris Rises, Joe Biden Falls in Night 2 of Democratic Debate

I skipped Night 1 of the debate. I went back and watched highlights but wasn’t really that enthused. Night 2 had more of the bigger guns (Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders, Kamala Harris, Pete Buttigieg), and they didn’t disappoint, at least as far as drama goes. My impressions of how they did, in order of how well they did. 1. KAMALA HARRIS – She has presence, which is very important in debate performances. She had commanding use of her time and had the best one-liners. She looked like she belonged. But…

UPH Election Day Live-Blog

It’s Election Day on this fine November 6, 2018. We’ll be updating this live blog throughout the day. [7:35pm] – Fox News called the House for the Democrats. I anticipate we’ll see a reverse of the Gingrich House of the 90s. Investigation after investigation after investigation. – Beau Sorensen [7:20pm] – I think the Senate results are showing that the Kavanaugh hearings backfired on Democrats and that from an electoral standpoint Republicans were right to push him through. It told Republicans they needed to get out and keep the Senate in GOP…