A Few Last-Minute Election Predictions

Election Day is finally here, so let’s see how well a few Utah Politico Hub contributors can prognosticate. Answers from Beau Sorensen, Bob Aagard, and John English. 1. Who will win the 2020 presidential election and by how much? SORENSEN: Despite all the handwringing about what will happen if Donald Trump loses by a little, in the end it was much ado about nothing. Joe Biden takes back states that had turned red in 2016 (Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan) and flips a few others (Arizona, Missouri, Ohio, North Carolina, and Florida).…

Could Donald Trump Still Win?

We’re less than two weeks away and the polls would suggest that Joe Biden’s on his way to finishing above 300 in the Electoral College. Could Donald Trump still pull this off? Does he have a chance? Could some of the state polls be as off as they were in 2016? Or as accurate as they were in 2012? Approval rating average of the president 11 days before his possible re-election v. how much of the popular vote they got (per 538) 45 Donald Trump – 42.5% 44 Barack Obama…

We’re Overdue for More Constitutional Amendments

As America gets further and further divided, it seems like we’re overdue for some Constitutional amendments to at least try to fix some of what’s broken about Washington. The Supreme Court Amendment XXVIII – 1. The Supreme Court shall be comprised of nine jurists, each appointed by the President of the United States, appointed to one eighteen-year term, with the advice and consent from Congress. 2. This will take effect on the first January after mid-terms upon passing of this Amendment. 3. Of the current jurists, the appointee who has…

Why I Support the NBA

I’ve been a Jazz fan since I moved to Utah in 1989. Been there for Stockton-to-Malone, the NBA Finals, the 2003 season when everyone predicted it would be the worst team in the NBA and they went 42-40 behind Andrei Kirilenko and a ragtag bunch of misfits, through Deron Williams and Carlos Boozer, through the Coach Ty Corbin years, the Stayward campaign, the rocket-launch rise of Donovan Mitchell, and everything in between. I’ve written on sports sites about them, appeared on TV and radio to talk about them, do my…

Mary Trump’s ‘Too Much And Never Enough’ – Book Review

The full title of Mary Trump’s book is Too Much and Never Enough: How My Family Created the World’s Most Dangerous Man. Truth is stranger than fiction, and here, the truth is no matter how many shows I’ve seen about dysfunctional, obscenely wealthy families, none of them quite line up with the cruelty and corruption of the Trump family. It makes the Roys from HBO’s Succession look like the Waltons. The granddaughter of Fred Trump and niece of Donald Trump writes a family history, one to help readers understand a…

The Case for Believing National Polls

I’ve noticed whenever I post or tweet about polls on the 2020 presidential election, someone will chime in with something “The polls were wrong in 2016!” They actually weren’t. The national polls were correct. It was some of the state polls that threw everybody off. In RealClearPolitics’ final average, they had Clinton at 46.8% and Trump at 43.6%, a difference of 3.2% with polls that averaged a margin of error of +/- 2.8%. This also meant that 9.6% of the electorate was voting third-party or hadn’t decided in the few…

Will George Floyd’s Death Lead to Actual Reform?

The death of George Floyd set off a firestorm that might actually lead to some meaningful change. We’ve had some changes in the past, even though this week it might not feel like it. One example: the more widespread use of body-cams have demonstrated that “bad apples” get caught while it can acquit the actions of others. However, things need to calm down before those new changes can happen. I didn’t go to the protest in Salt Lake City on Saturday. I wish I had now. I did go to…

“A Very Stable Genius” portrays a very unstable President

Pulitzer-prize winners Philip Rucker and Carol Leonnig have put the last three years of Trump into one book: A Very Stable Genius: Donald J. Trump’s Testing of America. It’s a condensed recap with on- and off-the-record sources guiding us through the behind-the-scenes drama that has unfolded in the White House. The authors portray a president who most of the time acts like a spoiled 12-year-old who thinks it is impossible for anyone to be smarter than him. He is surrounded by staff who are either true believers or believe they…

Six Thoughts on Trump’s Impeachment

As the House votes to make Donald Trump the third president in American history to be impeached, I had some thoughts. 1. The Imperial Presidency was curbed after Nixon resigned, but it’s grown back up. Congress no longer views itself as a co-equal branch of government, at least not when “their guy” is in office. The return to the Imperial Presidency ramped up after 9/11 under GWB, kept going under Obama, and now it’s full-fledged under Trump. Why do so many hate politics? You look at what both parties said…

Who won the #DemDebate?

I watched most of the #DemDebate on Tuesday, and this is how I would rate how they did. 12. BETO O’ROURKE – The guy is just not ready. He couldn’t recover from the dressing-down Pete Buttigieg gave him, and his answers were hollow. And his plans (“Tax mosques!”) are just getting more desperate. 11. TOM STEYER – His strategy was to look directly into the camera for all of his answers, but he looked stiff when doing so. It reminded me of the charisma-free businessman Steve Forbes (okay, not quite…