Since the End of Days – excuse me, Election Day – is almost here, let me gaze into my crystal ball and see what will transpire.
1. HILLARY CLINTON WILL WIN WITH LESS THAN 50% OF THE POPULAR VOTE – If she wins Florida, she wins. If she wins North Carolina, she wins. If she wins Nevada, she wins. If she wins New Hampshire, she wins. I put her Electoral College count around 294, because even though battleground state polls show it closer, I believe HRC’s vastly superior ground-game and GOTV efforts will pay off. But she will be the first president since Bush in 2000 to not get at least 50% of the vote.
2. THE US SENATE WILL END UP 50-50; GOP NARROWLY KEEPS HOUSE – Rob Portman, Marco Rubio, and Todd Young will win. Pat Toomey will fall just short; Kelly Ayotte will fall just short; Mark Kirk will lose badly. Tim Kaine will suddenly be the ever-valuable tie-breaker. The GOP advantage in the House will shrink to 10 seats.
3. GARY HERBERT WILL WIN RE-ELECTION BY HIGHER PERCENTAGE THAN MIKE LEE – Both are going to sail to victory, but even though Lee is more popular with his base, Herbert’s milquetoast persona goes down better with independents.
4. DONALD TRUMP WILL WIN UTAH WITH 38% OF THE VOTE – It’s been wishful thinking on my part and the parts of thousands that somehow, the majority-LDS Utah would take a stand and vote third party rather than accept the narcissistic vulgarian that won the GOP nomination. I’ve been surprised at how many of Utah’s leaders that wouldn’t endorse Trump ultimately came on board. I don’t see a political price in Utah for not supporting Trump. Anyway, Trump will get 38%, McMullin and Clinton will combine for about 55%, and the rest goes to Johnson, Stein, Castle, and “Other.” I really hope I’m wrong on this one.
5. ALL FOUR UTAH CONGRESSIONAL SEATS WILL REMAIN REPUBLICAN – There’s been some unhappiness in my district with Jason Chaffetz lately, but not near enough to make him sweat on election night. For every one voter that didn’t like his flip-flop on Trump, there are two more that hope he investigates Clinton endlessly. Mia Love will win by ten points. Chris Stewart will be a little closer, but still comfortable.
6. PAUL RYAN WILL REMAIN AS SPEAKER OF THE HOUSE – He never wanted the job, but now he’ll fight to keep it, and while I see a dozen or so Trump -wannabes in the House making his life difficult, the Republicans will see how much weaker they are than they were 24 hours ago and come together after Election Day. I give this scenario a 60% chance, with 25% it becoming a different GOP Speaker. I also see a 15% chance of Republicans being so stupid, they let Nancy Pelosi be Speaker.