Crunching some election numbers

by John English
by John English

My understanding is that there’s still over 100,000 absentee/mail-in ballots that have yet to be counted in states like California, Washington, Alaska, and Utah. It’ll be weeks before we have the full, final election numbers, but here’s where the count stands right now.

129,652,570 votes have been counted. It means that 2016 exceeds 2012’s vote total. It looks like Trump will get Michigan so the final electoral college count is 306-232.

The popular vote count in 2016:
Clinton – 61,929,605 (47.8%)
Trump – 60,938,847 (47%)
Others – 6,784,118 (5.2%)

The popular vote count in 2012:
Obama – 65,915,795 (51.1%)
Romney – 60,933,504 (47.2%)
Others – 2,236,107 (1.7%)

Obama won 26 states, plus DC. This time Clinton won 20 plus DC. Six-state swing. Those states were Florida, Ohio, Iowa, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan. Plus she lost the 1 Nebraska electoral vote Obama had won. 100 electoral-vote swing.

If she gets 68,900 more votes in Pennsylvania, 13,100 more votes in Michigan, and 27,300 more votes in Wisconsin, she’s the next president. She now has almost 1 million more votes than Trump.

Trump barely passed the Mitt Romney vote total, so this election was all about turnout. Clinton may have received just under 4 million fewer votes than Obama, but there were over 4 million more votes went to third-party candidates than did in 2012.

There were 13 states that counted as swing states this election, states where the poll average was 5% or less. In 12 of them, Trump did better than Romney, percentage-wise. The 13th – Arizona – still went to Trump.

The states that had the largest percentage vote third party were Utah (26%), Idaho (13.2%), Vermont (12.7%), Alaska (11.9%), New Mexico (11.7%), Oregon (10.7%), North Dakota (9.8%), Minnesota (8.6%) and Colorado (8.5%). All of those states ultimately went to the dominant party’s candidate.

Compared to 2012:

Trump improved in all racial categories. He won 8% of blacks, 29% of Hispanics, 29% of Asians, and 58% of whites. In age categories, he improved over Romney in the 18-29 range, and the 45-64 range. While Clinton gained 10 points with white college graduates, Trump gained 14 points with non-college graduate whites.

In income levels, Trump improved 16 points with those making less than $30,000 a year, and 6 points with those between $30,000-$49,999. With party affiliation, Trump won 9% of Democrats while Clinton only snagged 7% of Republicans. Independents went for Trump 48%-42%.

When people were asked when they decided for whom to vote, Trump did best among those who decided in the last two months of the campaign. Clinton did best among voters whose minds were made up before September.

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