Donald Trump sliding in latest polls

I love watching the polls. I’m a statistics kind of person. It’s been interesting to watch the movement since we’ve had the second debate and Scott Walker has dropped out. First let’s look at Iowa.

Here’s where things stood in Iowa before the CNN debate, averaging the last two polls.
1. Donald Trump – 28%
2. Ben Carson – 23%
3. Ted Cruz – 9.5%
4. Marco Rubio – 5.5%
5. Jeb Bush – 4.5%
5. Carly Fiorina – 4.5%
7. Mike Huckabee – 4%
8. John Kasich – 3.5%
9. Rand Paul – 3%
10. Bobby Jindal – 2%
10. Rick Santorum – 2%
12. Chris Christie – 1%

And where things stand Iowa since the debate:
1. Donald Trump – 24% (-4)
2. Ben Carson – 17% (-6)
3. Carly Fiorina – 13% (+8.5)
4. Ted Cruz – 8% (-1.5)
4. Marco Rubio – 8% (+2.5)
6. Jeb Bush – 6% (+1.5)
6. Mike Huckabee – 6% (+2)
8. Bobby Jindal – 4% (+2)
8. Rand Paul – 4% (+1)
10. John Kasich – 2% (-1.5)
11. Chris Christie – 1%
11. Rick Santorum – 1% (-1)

If you look at the slippage of Trump and Carson, it almost all went to Fiorina. Walker still had a pulse in Iowa, but nationally, he was off the map and so his dropping out of the race was inevitable.

Next are the averages from the two latest New Hampshire polls before the debate:
1. Donald Trump – 34%
2. Ben Carson – 14.5%
3. John Kasich – 10%
4. Carly Fiorina – 7.5%
5. Jeb Bush – 6.5%
5. Ted Cruz – 6.5%
7. Rand Paul – 5%
8. Marco Rubio – 3%
9. Chris Christie – 2%
10. Mike Huckabee – 1%

And the most recent post-debate New Hampshire poll:
1. Donald Trump – 26% (-8)
2. Carly Fiorina – 16% (+8.5)
3. Marco Rubio – 9% (+6)
4. Ben Carson – 8% (-6.5)
5. Jeb Bush – 7% (+.5)
5. John Kasich – 7% (-3)
7. Chris Christie – 5% (+3)
7. Ted Cruz – 5% (-1.5)
9. Rand Paul – 3% (-2)
10. Mike Huckabee – 0% (-1)

Lindsey Graham actually got 1%, so he can say he’s doing better than Huck in New Hampshire. (Try fundraising off that!)

Now here’s where the candidates stood in an average of the last four national polls before the debate.
1. Donald Trump – 30.4%
2. Ben Carson – 16.8%
3. Jeb Bush – 8.2%
4. Ted Cruz – 7%
5. Marco Rubio – 5.8%
6. Carly Fiorina – 4.4%
7. Mike Huckabee – 4%
8. John Kasich – 3.6%
9. Rand Paul – 2.6%
10. Chris Christie – 2.2%

And the average of the four national polls that have come out since the debate.
1. Donald Trump – 24% (-6.4)
2. Ben Carson – 16.3% (-.5)
3. Carly Fiorina – 11.8% (+7.4)
4. Jeb Bush – 9.8% (+1.6)
5. Marco Rubio – 9.3% (+3.5)
6. Ted Cruz – 6.5% (-.5)
7. Chris Christie – 3.5% (+1.3)
7. Mike Huckabee – 3.5% (-.5)
9. John Kasich – 3% (-.6)
10. Rand Paul – 2.3% (-.3)

Now that’s still over 50% going to the three candidates who have no experience in elected office. But in these areas, it looks like the second debate hurt Ben Carson as much as Donald Trump. And if the first debate is any pattern, Trump might be able to continue to do phone-in interviews and lack specifics and have his poll numbers go back up. If you judge who won a debate by how their poll numbers do, I’d say the top three winners were Carly Fiorina, Marco Rubio and Jeb Bush.

Ted Cruz seemed to be positioning himself to benefit from Trump supporters once they became disenchanted, but it doesn’t look like any are flocking to him. John Kasich also seemed to be the alternative establishment candidate to Jeb, but he’s also dwindling.

My hope would be that half of the GOP field take heed of Scott Walker’s advice and drop out to narrow the field so voters could focus on which credible candidates they want as an alternative to Trump. Every day that Rick Santorum, Bobby Jindal, Lindsey Graham, George Pataki, and Jim Gilmore don’t drop out is another day where it’s clear it’s just about their ego.

Liked it? Take a second to support Utah.Politico.Hub on Patreon!

Related posts