Since last month, Mitt Romney got into the race, climbed to #2 in some polls, and then officially dropped out of the 2016 presidential race. So how do those willing to put money on it feel the race is going to go? The folks at BetFair have filled the void left by the late great InTrade.
1. (1) Jeb Bush ——— 3.35 (12-5)
2. (5) Scott Walker — 5.3 (9-2)
3. (2) Marco Rubio —- 6 (5-1)
4. (3) Rand Paul ——- 10 (9-1)
5. (6) Chris Christie — 15.5 (14-1)
6. (8) Rick Perry ——- 19 (18-1)
7. (7) Ted Cruz ——— 21 (20-1)
8. (9) Mike Huckabee – 26 (25-1)
Four-way tie for 9th place between Ben Carson, Bobby Jindal, Susana Martinez, and Rick Santorum, all at 59-1.
With Romney dropping out, Jeb Bush is shoring up the “establishment” votes, and Scott Walker’s emerging as the Iowa darling alternative candidate. Governor vs. governor would be a good showdown, and Chris Christie is still there. If anyone else wants to get in, it might help to send signals now. Carson and Santorum are pretty much in; it’s just that no one is taking them seriously, yet. (Donald Trump? 199-1.)
There could be an advantage to waiting, let some early guys get bloodied up, then walk in as a savior. The problem is, when is the last time that worked? Fred Thompson tried it in 2008, and no one cared. Rick Perry tried it in 2012, and the other candidates were excited to tear apart a new face rather than keep beating up on each other.
Looking at the senators, Marco Rubio is doing the best at building up his national staff. He appears unafraid of fellow Floridian Jeb, and he’s doing a better job early of not overexposing his differences with libertarian Rand Paul and Tea Party mascot Ted Cruz.
By the way, at this point in 2011, Mitt Romney led the InTrade polls. Second and third were Mitch Daniels and Sarah Palin, both of whom wound up not running. It’s a safe bet that everyone in that top eight is running in 2016.