Election 2016 GOP Power Rankings – June 2015

I’d been looking at BetFair for power rankings in months’ past, but I’m turning more to the national polling now that there’s a deadline. The ten Republicans have two months to get their poll numbers up to make it into that first Fox News debate. I took the latest polls from ABC, CNN, FoxNews, and Quinnipiac and averaged them together for a national snapshot:

1. Jeb Bush – 11.25%
2. Scott Walker – 10.75%
3. Marco Rubio – 10.25%
4. Ben Carson – 9%
5. Rand Paul – 8.75%
5. Mike Huckabee – 8.75%
7. Ted Cruz – 7.5%
8. Chris Christie – 4.75%
9. Donald Trump – 4%
10. Rick Perry – 3%
11. Rick Santorum – 2.25%
12. John Kasich – 2%
13. Carly Fiorina – 1.75%
14. Lindsey Graham – 1.25%
15. Bobby Jindal – 1%
16. George Pataki – less than 1%

It is my assumption that Donald Trump won’t run. He says he’ll make his announcement later this month, but if I’m right, then that would mean by these polls that Santorum would squeak in. He’s been relaying his displeasure to a few news outlets ever since Fox News made their announcement. On this week’s Fox News Sunday, Chris Wallace interviewed Santorum and called him for being a whiner and complainer.

Now that’s a national look but how are they doing in the first two primaries? Here’s the latest from Gravis Marketing:

IOWA
1. Scott Walker – 17%
2. Marco Rubio – 13%
3. Ben Carson – 12%
4. Jeb Bush – 10%
5. Mike Huckabee – 8%
6. Ted Cruz – 6%
6. Rick Santorum – 6%
8. Carly Fiorina – 5%
9. Chris Christie – 4%
9. Rand Paul – 4%

NEW HAMPSHIRE
1. Jeb Bush – 21%
2. Scott Walker – 13%
2. Rand Paul – 13%
4. Donald Trump – 12%
5. Marco Rubio – 9%
6. Ben Carson – 5%
6. Carly Fiorina – 5%
6. Mike Huckabee – 5%
9. Chris Christie – 4%
9. Ted Cruz – 4%

Carly Fiorina is in the top ten in both of those states but may not make the debate. Rick Perry doesn’t make the top ten in either state either, but I get the feeling with all the time he’s spending in Ohio, we will see that change in the next round of polls. Some other state polls are coming out. John Kasich leads the pack at 19% in Ohio, and he’d beat Clinton 47-40 in a head-to-head. Perhaps a sign that he’s doomed before he started, in New York George Pataki is tied for first at 11% with Marco Rubio. If you can’t win your home state, why are you running?


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