GOP 2016: The Post-Debate Iowa Polls

The national polls are fluctuating but this time I wanted to focus on Iowa. Since the GOP Debate, the number in Iowa have moved around. Here’s where things stood based on the average of the two most recent Iowa polls before the debate.

1. Donald Trump – 24%
2. Scott Walker – 17%
3. Jeb Bush – 11%
4. Ben Carson – 6.5%
4. Mike Huckabee – 6.5%
6. Ted Cruz – 5%
7. Bobby Jindal – 4%
8. John Kasich – 3.5%
8. Marco Rubio – 3.5%
10. Rand Paul – 3%
11. Carly Fiorina – 2.5%
11. Rick Perry – 2.5%
Less than 1.7% – Chris Christie, Rick Santorum, Lindsay Graham

Next are the averages of the three Iowa polls that have come out since the August 6 debate.

1. Donald Trump – 19.3%
2. Ben Carson – 11.7%
3. Scott Walker – 11%
4. Ted Cruz – 8%
4. Carly Fiorina – 8%
6. Jeb Bush – 7%
6. Marco Rubio – 7%
8. Mike Huckabee – 5%
9. Rand Paul – 3.3%
10. John Kasich – 2.7%
11. Chris Christie – 2%
12. Bobby Jindal – 1.7%
Less than 1.7% – Rick Perry, Rick Santorum, Lindsay Graham

This confirms a few things. It shows that support for Trump is fading, but Walker and Bush failed to buoy themselves in the debate as well. It shows that Carly Fiorina is the only one who benefitted from the afternoon debate. It shows that Rick Santorum, Lindsey Graham, George Pataki and Jim Gilmore are wasting everyone’s time and should go ahead and drop out. Now there are some candidates that are trying harder than others to win Iowa. Kasich is more focused on New Hampshire, Rubio on South Carolina.

Now to compare, here’s where the Iowa polls were in August 2011:

1. Rick Perry – 22%
2. Mitt Romney – 19%
3. Michelle Bachmann – 18%
4. Ron Paul – 16%
5. Herman Cain – 7%
6. Newt Gingrich – 5%
6. Rick Santorum – 5%
8. Jon Huntsman – 3%
9. Someone else/Not sure – 4%

Perry had just jumped into the race and halted Bachmann’s momentum, and Romney was slipping in Iowa. Tim Pawlenty had just dropped out of the race. Perry would enjoy the lead for a month, then fall, at which point Cain took the lead for another month. Then Gingrich and Paul battled for the top spot. By the time Iowa happened, Romney appeared to have all comers beaten, except Santorum pulled off the win, barely. Santorum was still at only 8% in December.

So… plenty of time for candidates to solidify their messages. Sean Hannity has been sucking up to Donald Trump all week, and Rush Limbaugh has been defending him against media attacks. I have personally been amazed at the people who should know better who are still supporting Trump. Yes, he’s a billionaire, and yes, his reality show was entertaining, but he’s a crony capitalist first, and it doesn’t matter what party he’d run for. He could change his message 25%, run as a Democrat, and he’d get 25% in their polls while 50% of Democrats would be like “Are you KIDDING me?!”

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