A Closer Look at the Dan Jones and BYU Polls, or TL;DR: Why You Can’t Always Trust Pollsters

(Authors Note: While I am an unpaid intern on the Stormont Campaign, this article is entirely independent of that, and does not reflect the candidate or campaign’s views.) It’s “Hey! Look at our Polling Data Week.” It seems like every whosit has a poll prognosticating how the election will turn out. I’m going to look at just two of them, both released on Monday October 27th:Utah Policy Daily (Dan Jones) and BYU’s Center for the Study of Elections and Democracy (BYU-CSED). Both have problems, but the Dan Jones poll is especially…

Utah Medicaid Expansion Polls: The False Dichotomy Problem

Capitol at night

If there’s one thing that the pollsters who have raised their collective fingers to the wind of Utah public opinion in recent months can agree upon, it’s that Utah voters don’t know much about Medicaid expansion.  That’s a problem, not only for making public policy, but for trusting the polls to determine what the public supports.  After a meeting between the Governor and US Secretary of Health and Human Services (“HHS”) Sylvia Burwell, Utah Political Capital reported that Herbert had speculated that a deal on Medicaid expansion was just a couple weeks…