2016 Republican nomination delegate allocation

One of the positive changes the Republican party made in 2012 was to change the way delegates were distributed. Before, there were many states who wanted to move their primary or caucus earlier in the calendar year to gain more influence. Now the first four states serve as a winnowing process, but it doesn’t mean that a state that doesn’t vote until March or April can’t make a difference. South Carolina is the only state that is winner-take-all before March 15. It looks like Donald Trump is on his way…

62 things I learned from the South Carolina #GOPDebate

What happened during the South Carolina #GOPDebate? 1. CBS made sure they didn’t repeat ABC’s snafu by having all of the candidates walk out on stage together. 2. The positioning is L-to-R John Kasich, Jeb Bush, Ted Cruz, Donald Trump, Marco Rubio, and Ben Carson. Based on the cheers at introductions, most of the people in the room are not Trump or Carson voters. 3. Moderator John Dickerson has a moment of silence for Antonin Scalia. Five of the men bowed their heads and close their eyes. Trump stares straight…

Preview of the ABC New Hampshire #GOPDebate

To set up the stage for the ABC New Hampshire Debate in the Republican primaries, we need to first see what Iowa taught us. 1. The polls haven’t settled yet. I’ve been grousing about the polls looking sloppier and sloppier as Iowa approached. Small sample sizes. Large margin of errors. The final poll that was supposed to be the best was the Des Moines Register/Bloomberg poll, which had a MOE of 4%. So by almost that percentage, they overestimated Trump and underestimated Cruz, and Rubio did over 8% better in…

67 things I learned from watching the Fox News #GOPDebate

For the first time this cycle, I skipped the undercard debate. Jim Gilmore is there out of charity, and the crass last-second decision by Huckabee and Santorum to join Trump at his anti-Fox News rally just solidifies that they’re going to bomb on caucus night. So I’ll say Carly Fiorina won the debate by default, right? Doesn’t matter. None of these four should still be in the race this time next week. So on to primetime. What did I learn? 1. Rand Paul gets a loud pop. Libertarians in da…

This Week in GOP Polls: Trump v. Kelly

In August 2015, Fox News held the second GOP primary debate, and the first question to each candidate was aimed at an area of perceived weakness of theirs. Megyn Kelly was the questioner to Trump, and she asked him about his past disparaging remarks aimed at women. After the debate, many political pundits and media watchdogs praised Fox News for their tough, fair questions. Trump didn’t like how Kelly treated him, and he took to Twitter to voice his displeasure. He also had that infamous quote about blood coming out of…

Reaction to Fox Business #GOPDebate

The penultimate #GOPDebate before voters have their say in Iowa has occurred. Voices were raised, tears were shed, lives were changed. Okay, maybe it didn’t quite go like that but let’s review how it went. ==AFTERNOON DEBATE== 1. CARLY FIORINA – The fact that she didn’t outshine Huck & Rick by more solidified to me that she’s not going to last past New Hampshire. She was the best, keeping her attacks focussed on Hillary Clinton, but it ultimately doesn’t matter. If you can’t finish in the top five in Iowa…

Aftermath of the CNN Republican debate

I watched the afternoon debate live, and I watched the primetime debate on DVR. How did everyone do? I’ll do this in order of where they currently stand in the national polls. Afternoon 13. RICK SANTORUM – His most memorable line was “Not all Muslims are jihadis, but all jihadis are Muslim.” Santorum tried to distinguish himself by being tough on Islam. He tried to redefine it, saying it wasn’t just a religion but a governmental movement, pretty much made it sound like if we let in enough Muslims, they’re…

This Week in GOP Polls – 12/7/15

We’re eight days away from the next Republican debate, and so much has happened in the news since then. The self-radicalized terrorist attack in San Bernardino, the climate change meeting in Paris after its own terrorist attack, and the Senate vote to defund ObamaCare will give the candidates a lot to talk about. There will again be an afternoon and a primetime debate. To make the afternoon one, the candidate needs to 1% in four separate national, Iowa, or New Hampshire polls. To make to primetime, the candidate must average…

This Week in GOP Polls – 11/24/15

CNN has released the criteria for its December Republican Primary presidential debate. They will look at GOP polls for the six weeks leading up to the debate, and to be in primetime, the candidate must either average 3.5% or better in the national polls, 4% in the Iowa polls, or 4% in the New Hampshire polls. Currently there are only six candidates who doing 3.5% or better in the national polls. That would be Donald Trump, Ben Carson, Marco Rubio, Ted Cruz, Jeb Bush and Carly Fiorina. John Kasich, Chris…

Fox Business #GOPDebate, and This Week in Polls

Fox Business Channel went into this day with a mission: to show CNBC how to actually moderate a Republican primary debate. They got #GOPDebate trending and early reports are that the ratings were about on par, maybe a little less, than what CNBC delivered. Which is to say, it was the most watched day in the history of Fox Business Channel. THE AFTERNOON DEBATE Ranking them in order of how I think they did, not just to me, but how I think it played to the millions of likely Republican…