Could Donald Trump Still Win?

We’re less than two weeks away and the polls would suggest that Joe Biden’s on his way to finishing above 300 in the Electoral College. Could Donald Trump still pull this off? Does he have a chance? Could some of the state polls be as off as they were in 2016? Or as accurate as they were in 2012? Approval rating average of the president 11 days before his possible re-election v. how much of the popular vote they got (per 538) 45 Donald Trump – 42.5% 44 Barack Obama…

The Case for Believing National Polls

I’ve noticed whenever I post or tweet about polls on the 2020 presidential election, someone will chime in with something “The polls were wrong in 2016!” They actually weren’t. The national polls were correct. It was some of the state polls that threw everybody off. In RealClearPolitics’ final average, they had Clinton at 46.8% and Trump at 43.6%, a difference of 3.2% with polls that averaged a margin of error of +/- 2.8%. This also meant that 9.6% of the electorate was voting third-party or hadn’t decided in the few…

Who won the #DemDebate?

I watched most of the #DemDebate on Tuesday, and this is how I would rate how they did. 12. BETO O’ROURKE – The guy is just not ready. He couldn’t recover from the dressing-down Pete Buttigieg gave him, and his answers were hollow. And his plans (“Tax mosques!”) are just getting more desperate. 11. TOM STEYER – His strategy was to look directly into the camera for all of his answers, but he looked stiff when doing so. It reminded me of the charisma-free businessman Steve Forbes (okay, not quite…

Trump Asks China to Interfere in 2020 Election

Donald Trump stood in front of press cameras on the White House lawn and asked Ukraine and China to investigate the Bidens. He claimed he’s doing it as his duty to look into foreign corruption, but he’s only curious about digging up dirt on his political rival and his family. When asked about any other examples of examining corruption that involved US citizens, Trump could not provide any. Since White House press briefings have been permanently canceled, there’s no way for White House reporters to get more details. On the…

A way too early look at the 2020 Democratic presidential landscape

In 2016, way too many people ran for the Republican presidential ticket. It allowed a lifelong Democrat who turned into a birther a handful of years ago to win the nomination. So, based on very little, here’s where I see the candidates for president in power rankings for the 2020 Democratic presidential primary field. 1. KAMALA HARRIS – The junior senator from California is a star on the left. She’s pugnacious, which helps in picturing her debating Trump, and she checks all the identity politics boxes. She might be seen…

Polite Politics podcast Season 2, #2: Ranking the Presidents

The latest edition of the Polite Politics Podcast discusses how to rank presidents all time, where President Obama might fall in that ranking, and the factors that should be considered. Tyler also discusses: The Democratic party primary and debate VP Joe Biden looming over the race The uptick in Israel / Palestine violence His top 3/bottom 3 presidents Be sure to listen to the latest Polite Politics Podcast.

Evaluating the candidates for President (Part 1)

David Miller will present his series of posts evaluating the candidates for president over the coming weeks and months (because there are a lot of them). This is the introduction to the series.  Eight years ago, with two crowded presidential primaries, I did a long series of posts evaluating each candidate for president. I evaluated every candidate I could find, not just those in the two major parties. It was an interesting exercise, although I opted not to do it again in 2012. I wasn’t planning to do it for 2016, either,…

The Mero Moment: Government Shutdowns – September 24, 2015

Just over 20 years ago, the Gingrich revolution swept through Congress. For the first time in 63 years, Republicans became the majority in the 1994 election. I was a younger man back then having already spent many years on the Hill. Within the first year of the new leadership I became a chief of staff. Hopes were high for my conservative colleagues. We began organizing congressmen into something called CAT, the “Conservative Action Team,” with the hope that a core of 50 members of the House of Representatives could ensure…

Lies, Damn Lies, and Statistics…and, Now Lawsuits

My initial reaction to a congressional lawsuit of the president was negative.  To me it was just so much nonsense. With Speaker John Boehner and his pied piper followers come a high level of suspicion about motive.  However, when I watched the President’s rude, childish, and disrespectful response I acquiesced to give the whole thing another look-see.  I don’t think my mind has changed, but something has been solidified.