Fox Business #GOPDebate, and This Week in Polls

Fox Business Channel went into this day with a mission: to show CNBC how to actually moderate a Republican primary debate. They got #GOPDebate trending and early reports are that the ratings were about on par, maybe a little less, than what CNBC delivered. Which is to say, it was the most watched day in the history of Fox Business Channel. THE AFTERNOON DEBATE Ranking them in order of how I think they did, not just to me, but how I think it played to the millions of likely Republican…

This Week in GOP Polls – 11/3/15

We’re starting to get some post-debate polls after CNBC’s John Harwood & Co. embarrassed themselves, and we’re already only a week away from the next GOP debate. Fox Business Channel will host on Tuesday, November 10, and I imagine Neil Cavuto and the other moderators will have a much different game plan than “let’s have six moderators and make us the story.” Now the criteria for the afternoon and primetime debates are as such. If you gets at least 1% in any of the four most recent national GOP polls…

Polling on the professionalization of public education and the end of tenure

Updated 9.30.2015 at 2:40 PM. Since originally posting this, Sharon Gallagher-Fishbaugh, president of the Utah Education Association, has noted that Utah teachers don’t have tenure. This piece does not say that Utah teachers have tenure, does not mention Utah education policy, is categorized as “national interest” and is based on a national poll. However, in the interest of clarity–Utah teachers do not have tenure. As one comment notes below, they “have due process rights after completing a three year probationary status. In other words, they are not at will employees…

Donald Trump sliding in latest polls

I love watching the polls. I’m a statistics kind of person. It’s been interesting to watch the movement since we’ve had the second debate and Scott Walker has dropped out. First let’s look at Iowa. Here’s where things stood in Iowa before the CNN debate, averaging the last two polls. 1. Donald Trump – 28% 2. Ben Carson – 23% 3. Ted Cruz – 9.5% 4. Marco Rubio – 5.5% 5. Jeb Bush – 4.5% 5. Carly Fiorina – 4.5% 7. Mike Huckabee – 4% 8. John Kasich – 3.5%…

Election 2016 GOP Power Rankings – July 2015

We still have the first Fox News debate looming where only those who finish in the top ten in the last five national polls. I took the two most recent national polls and the latest Iowa poll and averaged them to give an idea how these candidates are doing. 1. Donald Trump – 16% 2. Scott Walker – 15% 3. Jeb Bush – 11.67% 4. Ben Carson – 6% 5. Ted Cruz – 5.67% 5. Rand Paul – 5.67% 5. Marco Rubio – 5.67% 8. Mike Huckabee – 4.67% 9.…

Election 2016 GOP Power Rankings – June 2015

I’d been looking at BetFair for power rankings in months’ past, but I’m turning more to the national polling now that there’s a deadline. The ten Republicans have two months to get their poll numbers up to make it into that first Fox News debate. I took the latest polls from ABC, CNN, FoxNews, and Quinnipiac and averaged them together for a national snapshot: 1. Jeb Bush – 11.25% 2. Scott Walker – 10.75% 3. Marco Rubio – 10.25% 4. Ben Carson – 9% 5. Rand Paul – 8.75% 5.…

What’s In a Poll: Do Utah voters really want a municipal tax hike?

How you do a poll makes all the difference in whether you can trust it. Because UtahPolicy.com’s latest poll draws from a statewide respondent pool instead of from local municipalities to gauge support for a municipal tax increase, local officials should be slow to rely too heavily on the favorable numbers. Using a poll by Dan Jones and Associates, the UtahPolicy.com headline says that “Utahns Favor Sales Tax Hike to Pay for Transportation.” According to the poll, “58 percent of Utahns said they favor such a tax increase, 41 percent oppose and 6 percent…

A Closer Look at the Dan Jones and BYU Polls, or TL;DR: Why You Can’t Always Trust Pollsters

(Authors Note: While I am an unpaid intern on the Stormont Campaign, this article is entirely independent of that, and does not reflect the candidate or campaign’s views.) It’s “Hey! Look at our Polling Data Week.” It seems like every whosit has a poll prognosticating how the election will turn out. I’m going to look at just two of them, both released on Monday October 27th:Utah Policy Daily (Dan Jones) and BYU’s Center for the Study of Elections and Democracy (BYU-CSED). Both have problems, but the Dan Jones poll is especially…

Is UtahPolicy.com doing click-bait polling on same-sex marriage?

UtahPolicy.com recently released a new poll declaring a several-point shift in public opinion regarding same-sex marriage in just a few months. Unfortunately, it’s also misleading and inaccurate. The margin of error (MOE) of both polls is a cause for concern. While 2.5% is considered very good, the UtahPolicy.com polls only manage a MOE of 4.9%. This is a function of using a very small sample size, just 400 total respondents. Of course, using a larger polling sample will cost a lot more money, but getting away with a relatively large swing is…

Congressional Members Are Becoming As Unpopular As Congress

I’m usually harsh on polls that cite Congress’s lack of popularity. They just don’t make any sense. We don’t elect Congress as a body, so why should we care about polls of the body? It’s the popularity of the individual members that matters, and they tend to each be a lot more popular than the body. Until recently, that is. In a Washington Post/ABC News poll, for the first time more than half of all adults (but not quite half of registered voters) disapprove of their Representative in Congress. Of…