Where I stand on the current candidates

I reserve the right to change my mind on any of these current candidates tomorrow. 1. MARCO RUBIO – Rubio’s been the one I’ve supported because I agree with him on the issues the most of the four remaining men. I think he would be a transformative president. Poll after poll shows he would beat Hillary Clinton in a general election, better than Cruz or Trump would fare. I like most of his tax plan, I like that he supports Congressional term limits and balancing the budget. I don’t like that’s…

Super Tuesday: GOP polls vs results

Super Tuesday has come and gone so let’s look at the results, comparing most recent poll/polls average to actual result. Alabama Poll (3): Trump 38, Rubio 20.3, Cruz 14.7 Result: Trump 43.4, Cruz 21.1, Rubio 18.7 Alaska Poll (1): Trump 28, Cruz 24, Rubio 7 Result: Cruz 36.4, Trump 33.5, Rubio 15 Arkansas Poll (1): Cruz 27, Trump 23, Rubio 23 Result: Trump 32.7, Cruz 30.5, Rubio 25 Georgia Poll (4): Trump 37.8, Rubio 22.3, Cruz 22 Result: Trump 38.8, Rubio 24.5, Cruz 23.6 Massachusetts Poll (3): Trump 47, Rubio…

Preview of the ABC New Hampshire #GOPDebate

To set up the stage for the ABC New Hampshire Debate in the Republican primaries, we need to first see what Iowa taught us. 1. The polls haven’t settled yet. I’ve been grousing about the polls looking sloppier and sloppier as Iowa approached. Small sample sizes. Large margin of errors. The final poll that was supposed to be the best was the Des Moines Register/Bloomberg poll, which had a MOE of 4%. So by almost that percentage, they overestimated Trump and underestimated Cruz, and Rubio did over 8% better in…

This Week in GOP Polls: Trump v. Kelly

In August 2015, Fox News held the second GOP primary debate, and the first question to each candidate was aimed at an area of perceived weakness of theirs. Megyn Kelly was the questioner to Trump, and she asked him about his past disparaging remarks aimed at women. After the debate, many political pundits and media watchdogs praised Fox News for their tough, fair questions. Trump didn’t like how Kelly treated him, and he took to Twitter to voice his displeasure. He also had that infamous quote about blood coming out of…

This Week in #GOP Polls – 1/19/16

I had an epiphany with these debates. They’re not really debates, at least on the Republican side. They’re 90% a series of mini-speeches delivered when they all happen to be on stage at the same time, and they tend to rehash the same few subjects over and over.. You want to shake up the next one, the final before Iowa? Take the top eight candidates. Don’t even give an undercard debate. Take the four most recent national, Iowa, and New Hampshire GOP polls each, and come up with your top…

Fox Business #GOPDebate, and This Week in Polls

Fox Business Channel went into this day with a mission: to show CNBC how to actually moderate a Republican primary debate. They got #GOPDebate trending and early reports are that the ratings were about on par, maybe a little less, than what CNBC delivered. Which is to say, it was the most watched day in the history of Fox Business Channel. THE AFTERNOON DEBATE Ranking them in order of how I think they did, not just to me, but how I think it played to the millions of likely Republican…

Election 2016 GOP Power Rankings – June 2015

I’d been looking at BetFair for power rankings in months’ past, but I’m turning more to the national polling now that there’s a deadline. The ten Republicans have two months to get their poll numbers up to make it into that first Fox News debate. I took the latest polls from ABC, CNN, FoxNews, and Quinnipiac and averaged them together for a national snapshot: 1. Jeb Bush – 11.25% 2. Scott Walker – 10.75% 3. Marco Rubio – 10.25% 4. Ben Carson – 9% 5. Rand Paul – 8.75% 5.…