This Week in GOP Polls – 11/24/15

CNN has released the criteria for its December Republican Primary presidential debate. They will look at GOP polls for the six weeks leading up to the debate, and to be in primetime, the candidate must either average 3.5% or better in the national polls, 4% in the Iowa polls, or 4% in the New Hampshire polls.

This Week in GOP Polls - 11/24/15
by John English

Currently there are only six candidates who doing 3.5% or better in the national polls. That would be Donald Trump, Ben Carson, Marco Rubio, Ted Cruz, Jeb Bush and Carly Fiorina. John Kasich, Chris Christie and Rand Paul would also make the debate by virtue of how they are doing in New Hampshire. To make it to the afternoon debate, the candidate must be averaging 1% either nationally, in Iowa, or in New Hampshire. Right now, that debate would consist of Mike Huckabee and Rick Santorum. Lindsey Graham, George Pataki and Jim Gilmore would be on the outside looking in.

Since the attacks in Paris, foreign policy has come to the forefront, but that hasn’t affected the polls much. A few weeks ago, Carson looked like he would overtake Trump nationally, but he’s receded as of late. He’s hanging on to second place in national polls, but when you look at the early states, he’s losing ground.

Carson was #1 in almost all of Iowa’s October polls. In November, he’s slid to third behind Trump and Cruz. Below is the average of two Iowa polls from this time last month, and then the average of the two most recent Iowa polls, as a snapshot of how things are moving there.

1. Donald Trump- 19%      27.5%
2. Ted Cruz-          12.5%   22%
3. Ben Carson-      30%      18.5%
4. Marco Rubio-    10%      12%
5. Jeb Bush-          8.5%     4.5%
6. Carly Fiorina-    3.5%     3.5%
6. Rand Paul-        2.5%     3.5%

And now the same with New Hampshire

1. Donald Trump- 26%     27%
2. Marco Rubio-    10%     12%
3. Ben Carson-      14%     10%
4. Ted Cruz-          6.5%    9.5%
5. John Kasich-     8.5%    8.5%
6. Jeb Bush-          9.5%    7%
7. Carly Fiorina-    7%      5%
8. Chris Christie-   4%      4.5%
8. Rand Paul-        4%      4.5%

And nationally

1. Donald Trump- 23.5%    30%
2. Ben Carson-      24%       20%
3. Marco Rubio-    11%       12.5%
4. Ted Cruz-          6.5%      11%
5. Jeb Bush-          7.5%      5.5%
6. Carly Fiorina-    7%        3.5%

Something to keep in mind on where we are in the process. September 2011 was the second straight month of Rick Perry being #1 in GOP polls. After his “oops” moment at the debate, he fell. Then Herman Cain took over and he was #1 in October. In November, the stories started circulating about his sexual misconduct, and he fell quickly. Toward the end of November, Mitt Romney had a tenuous lead in the polls, but Newt Gingrich had shot up to be a close second. Also at this point, there were only eight candidates left in the race, but Cain was getting close to dropping out.

Trump’s been on top a long time and shows no signs of slowing down. The law of political physics don’t seem to apply. Trump’s made numerous incorrect or offensive statements that would have sunk any other candidate, but his exuberant confidence and projection of strength seem to be his best qualities.

We are still at that pre-voting area of the polls indicating without illuminating. Even in the early states, there are many voters who aren’t paying as close attention as certain other obsessive types might be. (*cough*) At this point in 2011, Rick Santorum was at 3% in Iowa. But he kept knocking doors and visiting people, and he ultimately edged out Mitt Romney to win Iowa. Iowa is always the tipping point when voters’ attention sky rockets. We’ve still got over two months until those first votes are cast.

Liked it? Take a second to support Utah.Politico.Hub on Patreon!

Related posts