UPH Election Day Live-Blog

It’s Election Day on this fine November 6, 2018. We’ll be updating this live blog throughout the day.

[7:35pm] – Fox News called the House for the Democrats. I anticipate we’ll see a reverse of the Gingrich House of the 90s. Investigation after investigation after investigation. – Beau Sorensen

[7:20pm] – I think the Senate results are showing that the Kavanaugh hearings backfired on Democrats and that from an electoral standpoint Republicans were right to push him through. It told Republicans they needed to get out and keep the Senate in GOP hands. I wonder if that will help candidates down ballot. That’s one thing to look for in Utah’s CD-4. With a very strong and popular Senate candidate in Mitt Romney, will that benefit Mia Love and allow her to keep her seat? – Beau Sorensen

[6:56pm] – FiveThirtyEight’s probability model has control of the house swinging strongly to the Republicans from almost a 9 in 10 chance earlier tonight. The question is if this was a direct result of President Trump’s focus on wedge issues, because of the economy, or something else? – Beau Sorensen

[6:34pm] – The Democrats were slight favorites in the governor and senate races in Florida according to the polls, but with 91% reporting in, Ron DeSantis and Rick Scott both have the leads. Could this be a precursor that the blue wave is more of a ripple? Meanwhile with 34% reporting in Texas, Beto O’Rourke still has a 50.5%-48.9% lead over Ted Cruz. – John English

[5:03pm] – There are reports of long lines at the very few polling stations around the state, including hour plus waits in Orem, Lehi, Provo, and Ogden. The official Utah County turnout numbers indicate that if it’s a close race, we may not know the winner for weeks as a lot of votes were cast at the last minute. – Beau Sorensen

[4:50pm] – Before the polls close back east, a prognostication. The Democrats will win the House, and it won’t be particularly close. This will end up looking like a wave election, with somewhere around 50 seats changing hands. Ben McAdams will win UT-4, ousting Mia Love. On the plus side for Republicans, they will keep the Senate 53-47. – Beau Sorensen

[4:28pm] – There are 35 Senate seats up for grabs.
Current alignment is 51 (R) / 49 (D). (I’m counting Sanders and King as D).

Arizona – Sinema (D) / McSally (R) = Edge to switch to (D)
California – Feinstein (D) / De Leon (D) = Stays (D)
Connecticut – Murphy (D) / Corey (R) = Stays (D)
Delaware – Carper (D) / Arlett (R) = Stays (D)
Florida – Nelson (D) / Scott (R) = Edge to stay (D)
Hawaii – Hirono (D) / Curtis (R) = Stays (D)
Indiana – Donnelly (D) / Braun (R) = Switches to (R)
Maine – King (D) / Brakey (R) = Stays (D)
Maryland – Cardin (D) / Campbell (R) = Stays (D)
Massachusetts – Warren (D) / Diehl (R) = Stays (D)
Michigan – Stabenow (D) / James (R) = Edge to stay (D)
Minnesota – Klobuchar (D) / Newberger (R) = Stays (D)
*Minnesota – Smith (D) / Housley (R) = Stays (D)
Mississippi – Wicker (R) / Baria (D) = Stays (R)
*Mississippi – Hyde-Smith (R) / Espy (D) = Stays (R)
Missouri – McCaskill (D) / Hawley (R) = Edge to switch to (R)
Montana – Tester (D) / Rosendale (R) = Edge to stay (D)
Nebraska – Fischer (R) / Raybould (D) = Stays (R)
Nevada – Heller (R) / Rosen (D) = Edge to switch to (D)
New Jersey – Menendez (D) / Hugin (R) = Stays (D)
New Mexico – Heinrich (D) / Rich (R) = Stays (D)
New York – Gillibrand (D) / Farley (R) = Stays (D)
North Dakota – Heitcamp (D) / Cramer (R) = Switches to (R)
Ohio – Brown (D) / Renacci (R) = Edge to stay (D)
Rhode Island – Whitehouse (D) / Flanders (R) = Stays (D)
Pennsylvania – Casey (D) / Barletta (R) = Stays (D)
Tennessee – Blackburn (R) / Bredesen (D) = Edge to stay (R)
Texas – Cruz (R) / O’Rourke (D) = Edge to stay (R)
Utah – Romney (R) / Wilson (D) = Stays (R)
Vermont – Sanders (D) / Vupan (R) = Stays (D)
Virginia – Kaine (D) / Stewart (R) = Stays (D)
Washington – Cantwell (D) / Hutichson (R) = Stays (D)
West Virginia – Manchin (D) / Morrissey (R) = Edge to stay (D)
Wisconsin – Baldwin (D) / Vukmir (R) = Stays (D)
Wyoming – Barrasso (R) / Trauner (D) = Stays (R)
*special election

Giving everyone their edge, that ends with GOP 52 / Dem 48. – John English

[1:55pm] – Early Vote By Mail numbers show high participation in in most counties, with Garfield currently in the lead with 74.9% turnout. Salt Lake County has 54.7%, Davis has 52.4%, but Utah County has just 36.2%. – John English

[10:45am] – If you’re concerned about the status of your mail-in ballot, Utah’s got a handy tool at vote.utah.gov that will let you know if it’s been accepted or not. – Beau Sorensen

[10:30am] – The biggest statewide race is between incumbent Mia Love (R) and challenger Ben McAdams (D). Right now, I wonder if the Sunday text from a pro-McAdams PAC – the “Independent Republicans of Utah” – did more harm than good. The text read: “The Independent Republicans of Utah want you to know: you won’t be excommunicated for voting for Dem Ben McAdams – he’ the best Republican in the race.” A KUTV/Dixie Strategies poll had McAdams up 50-43 last week.  For Mia Love to have any chance, she will need a lot more Utah County voters to show up. – John English

Liked it? Take a second to support Utah.Politico.Hub on Patreon!

Related posts